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Page last updated: 20th May 2015
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AssessmentOn 15 May 2015, Canada submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), communicating its economy-wide target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% below 2005 levels in 2030. After accounting for forestry we estimate this is a reduction of 21% below 2005 levels of industrial GHG emissions . This is equivalent to a reduction of 2% below 1990 industrial GHG emissions levels.
Canada’s INDC confirms the inclusion of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting (based on a net-net approach) in its 2030 GHG mitigation framework. We estimate that net-net accounting in the LULUCF sector is likely to provide credits of 63 MtCO2e and therefore increase the level of industrial GHG emissions  in 2030 allowed under this target by an amount equivalent to about 11% of 1990 industrial GHG emissions.
According to the effort-sharing principles considered in our methodology, we rate this INDC “inadequate”. This means it is not consistent with various interpretations of an equitable approach to reach a 2°C pathway.
Despite withdrawing from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011, Canada has maintained its target under the Convention - to reduce emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, which translates to a 7% increase in emissions from 1990 levels. A recent assessment (Environment Canada, 2014) estimates that Canada could achieve 15% of its overall emissions reductions through credits obtained from LULUCF accounting.
The Climate Action Tracker’s projections for Canada’s current policies shows Canada will miss its 2020 pledge and 2030 INDC by a wide margin. While emissions need to decline relative to 2005 levels, under current policy projections, Canada’s emissions excluding LULUCF are projected to increase from 2005 levels by 1% and 8% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Relative to 1990 levels, emissions are expected to increase by 26% and 35% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Additional measures are needed to achieve its emission reduction pledges.