This information is taken directly from:
http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada
Go to the website for more information and to read the entire report for Canada.
Page last updated: 20th May 2015
Rating
- Basic view
- + Pledges
- + Kyoto accounting
Go to the website for a much clearer and enlarged graphic.
Assessment
On 15 May 2015, Canada submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), communicating its economy-wide target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% below 2005 levels in 2030. After accounting for forestry we estimate this is a reduction of 21% below 2005 levels of industrial GHG emissions [1]. This is equivalent to a reduction of 2% below 1990 industrial GHG emissions levels.Canada’s INDC confirms the inclusion of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting (based on a net-net approach) in its 2030 GHG mitigation framework. We estimate that net-net accounting in the LULUCF sector is likely to provide credits of 63 MtCO2e and therefore increase the level of industrial GHG emissions [1] in 2030 allowed under this target by an amount equivalent to about 11% of 1990 industrial GHG emissions.
According to the effort-sharing principles considered in our methodology, we rate this INDC “inadequate”. This means it is not consistent with various interpretations of an equitable approach to reach a 2°C pathway.
Despite withdrawing from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011, Canada has maintained its target under the Convention - to reduce emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, which translates to a 7% increase in emissions from 1990 levels. A recent assessment (Environment Canada, 2014) estimates that Canada could achieve 15% of its overall emissions reductions through credits obtained from LULUCF accounting.
The Climate Action Tracker’s projections for Canada’s current policies shows Canada will miss its 2020 pledge and 2030 INDC by a wide margin. While emissions need to decline relative to 2005 levels, under current policy projections, Canada’s emissions excluding LULUCF are projected to increase from 2005 levels by 1% and 8% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Relative to 1990 levels, emissions are expected to increase by 26% and 35% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Additional measures are needed to achieve its emission reduction pledges.
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