An energy transition has begun, but it's probably not the one you imagined.
It
might have an ugly financial face, an authoritarian political mask or come in
the guise of geographic disunion.
But it
probably won't look like a solar panel or a windmill. And it won't include
flying cars or undersea homes.
Although
no one really knows where the globe's energy mix is headed or how it will shape
our lives in the future, energy experts now offer a diversity of forecasts,
stories and warnings.
Their
pronouncements are both myth busting if not startling.
When
economies shrink
Jeff Rubin, the former chief economist
for CIBC, argues that "the new green" will not be endless arrays of
solar panels or windmills but less oil and smaller economies.
Mikal
Hook, an analyst at Sweden's Uppsala Depletion Group, goes further and argues
that any orderly energy transition might now be impossible because renewables
simply can't grow as fast as oil.
He also
warns that all citizens should prepare for "high and likely volatile oil
prices," and that governments should be "educating their citizenry of
the risk of contraction to minimize potential future social discord."
Chris
Turner, Calgary's sustainability journalist, believes that an orderly energy
leap can be made but political leaders and the status quo aren't showing much
interest in public transit or renewable forms of energy at least in North
America.
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