It's that time of the year again when yours truly goes out on the proverbial limb and reveals how much or how little political sagacity he really has with his annual New Year's Political Predictions.
If I'm laughed out of town before the end of 2012 no one can say I didn't ask for it.
Might as well start at the top with U.S. President Barack Obama, who I have to confess has been a huge disappointment for me in his first three years, especially on the foreign policy front, where you would be hard-pressed to squeeze a razor blade between his brutal use of military power abroad and former President George Bush. Obviously as former President – and a great general – Dwight Eisenhower warned, the Military-Industrial Complex calls the shots on American foreign policy and most every other aspect of American life as well.
Consequently, it wouldn't break my heart to see the first black American president denied a second term, but if I had to bet my life on it today, I'd pile my chips on Obama's name for three good reasons – Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.
Romney, a political chameleon if there ever was one, would turn himself inside out to be president, but it's to no avail. He has long since lost his political cred with moderate Republicans for flip-flopping on so many issues like medicare and gay rights and he can never be right wing enough for the social conservatives and Tea Party flat earthers that are the tail wagging the Republican dog. (Or should that be elephant?)
As for the others, Rick Who will be the flavour of the day for about another week before he's forgotten while Dr. Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman, who would be my choice because he's been against most U.S. foreign wars like Iraq and Afghanistan, doesn't stand a chance for that very reason.
Therefore I give Obama a second term and I earnestly hope that he proves me wrong about my feelings about his first term, but somehow I doubt it.
This takes me to my biggest prediction faux pas of 2011 when I insisted that Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper would never win a majority. Harper certainly fooled me and he fooled a lot of other political pundits too. Obviously, barring a political catastrophe that I can't imagine, cunning Stephen will still be around for another year although I wouldn't empty my pockets betting on Defence Minister Peter MacKay, especially now that he has such a stunning, new, trophy wife. (Oops! I'm going to get into trouble for that one.)
Then there's the federal NDP, normally not of much interest, but now that they're “Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition” – fooling virtually every pundit in the land, – we must pontificate on their fate and frankly I think it's going to be a perilous one. Let's cut to the quick. On election night, those many months ago, I said the election of the 59 Quebecois as NDP MP's would be the ruination of the NDP and I stand by that prediction.
Why you rightfully ask? The answer is simple. I hate to be cynical but in my opinion Quebec politicians, regardless of political stripe, have one abiding passion – Quebec – and they care very little about the rest of Canada. Consequently the sh-- is going to hit the fan in February at the NDP leadership convention when the NDP old guard, which has had only limited success outside of Quebec, tries to boost its favourite son Brian Topp, who's never held elective office, over Thomas Mulcair, who was the only elected NDP MP in Quebec until the last election and was a MNA in the Quebec National Assembly for 13 years.
Great potential at this convention for blood on the floor.
And a quick note. I think the obituaries for the Federal Liberals are a little premature. Up until now Canadians have only seen Stephen Harper “light” with his string of minority governments. But now that Harper has his long sought after majority, we're going to see Stephen Harper “heavy.” It might not be a pretty sight.
And then, of course, there's the zany world of B.C. politics where you make predictions at your peril. With the Liberals still trying to figure out how to pay for their HST boondoggle and less than united behind their perky new leader, the outlook is decidedly grim. In fact the next election in May 2013 is the NDP's to lose, but as I've said many times before, never underestimate the ability of the B.C. NDP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
As for the bright spanking new team at the Cranbrook City Council table, I'm expecting an Academy Awards performance. But then again, I may be a little biased.
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